Prospects for development
Development trend of polyvinyl chloride resin industry
China's PVC resin consumption is mainly concentrated in south and east China, guangdong, zhejiang, fujian, shandong and jiangsu provinces total consumption accounts for about 70. The polyvinyl chloride resin processing industry in jiangsu, shandong and zhejiang provinces is relatively developed, and the consumption of the three provinces accounts for about 34.0 percent of the total domestic consumption. Production and sales in north China are basically balanced. With the development of the central and western regions and large-scale infrastructure construction, the consumption of polyvinyl chloride resin in the central and western regions will gradually increase.
2 demand forecasting
Polyvinyl chloride resin industry is a basic and energy-intensive industry, which is greatly affected by the demand and energy price. It is also a basic chemical raw material, so it is closely related to economic development. From 2012, due to domestic PVC resin capacity continues to decrease, while the downstream demand growth is relatively slow, and export, import, domestic PVC resin enterprises overall capacity utilization is not high, therefore, idled capacity number is larger, the market price also remain low, price fluctuation range is reduced, in addition, PVC resin futures listed in a certain extent, increased the fluctuations in the price of PVC resin market uncertainty. China's PVC resin industry will still be in a difficult integration period, there will be a variety of factors affecting the future development of China's PVC resin.
3. Export problem
(1) cost barriers
PVC is a basic chemical raw material, the product difference is small, in the domestic perfect competition market pattern, the cost is the most important factor affecting the competitiveness of enterprises. Due to the characteristics of the industry, raw materials and energy account for a high proportion of product costs. The cost of petroleum ethylene method is mainly affected by the oil price; The production cost of calcium carbide method was mainly affected by calcium carbide cost, in general, calcium carbide cost about 70% of the cost of PVC, and power costs accounted for about 60% of the cost of calcium carbide, due to the abundant power resources in the western China, electricity prices are relatively low, compared with eastern carbide production enterprise, production by calcium carbide method in western companies have certain advantages in terms of cost. And have resource endowment, the enterprise that form a complete set calcium carbide produces, will build more solid cost barrier.
(2) industrial policy barriers
Chlor-alkail industry to promote the upgrading of industrial structure, regulating the industry development, in accordance with "optimizing layout, orderly development, adjusting structure, energy saving, environmental protection, safety in production, technological progress," the principles of sustainable development, the national development and reform commission (NDRC) formulated released the chlor-alkali industry access conditions (caustic soda, PVC) ", and since started on December 1, 2007: in the aspect of industry layout for new chlor-alkali production enterprises should be close to the resources, energy producing area, the eastern region in addition to the relocation companies in principle no longer new PVC by calcium carbide method and instead of caustic soda related projects; In terms of technology, it is required to construct comprehensive utilization devices of calcium carbide slag, such as cement making from calcium carbide slag, simultaneously for new or expanded projects of polyvinyl chloride with calcium carbide method. Access conditions also set standards for new projects in terms of energy consumption and environmental protection. The adjustment of industrial policies has greatly raised the threshold of capital, technology, talents and resources in the chlor-alkali industry.
(3) scale barriers
PVC production requires a large scale of investment, high fixed costs, scale benefits are obvious. Larger companies are in a better position to negotiate with suppliers and lower the cost of raw materials. Enterprises with large production and sales volume also have higher market share, have greater market influence and are relatively easier to obtain customers. Once the production and marketing of PVC production enterprises reach a larger scale, the marginal cost will gradually reduce, and enhance the ability to resist risk.
(4) capital barriers
At the same time, with the increasingly strict supervision of safety and environmental protection by the state, the construction of chlor-alkali production equipment must be matched with corresponding large environmental protection equipment (such as calcium carbide route must be matched with calcium carbide slag cement plant, etc.), more capital investment, most of the small and medium-sized enterprises can not afford.
Therefore, investment in the industry of manufacturers must have a strong financial strength, there are certain capital barriers.
The demand for PVC in India's domestic market is increasing year by year, from 1.7 million tons in 2009 to 2.2 million tons in 2012. But before India, only 5 PVC production enterprises have domestic production capacity of 1.25 million tons/year. Finolex industries is the largest manufacturer of PVC pipes in India. Due to the imbalance between supply and demand, there is a big gap, so the average annual import of PVC in India is 950,000 tons. At the same time, India's vinyl raw material gap is also increasing year by year, 2011 is 722,000 tons, 2012 is 976,000 tons, 2013 will reach 1.12 million tons. According to statistics, from April to September 2012, PVC imports from India mainly came from South Korea, Taiwan, Germany, the United States, Mexico and other countries and regions, of which PVC imports from South Korea and Taiwan both exceeded 200,000 tons.
Rajesh Deshpande said that India's downstream PVC products are mainly PVC pipes and accessories, accounting for 43% of the country's downstream PVC products. In the first six months of fiscal year 2012-2013, downstream demand increased by 20% and imports increased by 50%. At this rate of development, by March 2013, India's domestic market demand will reach 2.2 million tons, PVC pipe development rate will also reach double digits.
Because PVC downstream consumption market expands year by year, industry of Indian PVC welcomes bigger development opportunity. According to Rajesh Deshpande, the growth of downstream consumer market of PVC products in India stems from many aspects. The government's investment in infrastructure construction is increasing year by year. Statistics show that during the 12th five-year plan period, the Indian government will invest 890 billion us dollars in infrastructure construction. Rural infrastructure development fund increased to 3.5 billion us dollars; Investment in rural drinking water and sanitation was budgeted at us $2.5 billion. $53 million will be invested to strengthen irrigation systems; In the delhi-mumbai industrial corridor, $90 billion will be invested in large infrastructure projects, including $4.5 billion from the Japanese government.
Although the gap between supply and demand is large, the PVC industry in India is facing certain challenges due to the competitive advantages of imported products. Rajesh Deshpande admitted that there are still some problems in the development of PVC industry in India: for example, users have not yet seen the advantages of plastic pipe material over traditional pipe material; Environmentalists and non-governmental organizations explain the harm of plastic pipes from the perspective of environmental hazards. Relevant production enterprises do not pay attention to their own product quality control, etc. Therefore, India's PVC industry to achieve sustainable development, it must constantly develop new products, new technology, while paying attention to the recycling and reuse of PVC supplies.
Although China has the world's largest polyvinyl chloride production capacity, but due to the decline in ethylene prices, 2009 polyvinyl chloride imports set a new record, on the other hand, China's polyvinyl chloride market has always been in a low operating rate. In the first half of 2009, China imported about 1.2 million tons of PVC, one million tons more than in all of 2008. With the soaring price of ethylene, China's calcium carbide polyvinyl chloride production competitive advantage appears. China's PVC imports fell steadily in the second half of 2009, to 60,646 tons in November, according to Chinese customs data.
In the first half of 2013, due to industrial overcapacity, weak downstream demand and other adverse factors, the overall performance of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) industry was poor, and the enterprise was in a difficult situation. But PVC foreign trade market performance is eye-catching, a number of data than in the same period in previous years have obvious recovery adjustment. Nevertheless, the personage inside course of study points out, as American polyvinyl chloride factory opens rate to rise, predict foreign trade of our country polyvinyl chloride will present the situation that the quantity of imports recovers growth, quantity of exports shrinks steadily in the situation.
According to statistics from China chlor-alkali industry association, as of the end of June 2013, the domestic production capacity of PVC (vague resin) was 23.92 million tons/year. In the first half of 2013, the new production increase of PVC was 860,000 tons/year, 350,000 tons/year was withdrawn, and 510,000 tons/year was added. All the withdrawn production capacity was calcium carbide production equipment. The pace of capacity expansion in the industry as a whole has slowed significantly, but the trend of steady and increasing capacity is still continuing.
In terms of export, from January to may, the cumulative export volume of polyvinyl chloride increased by 152.4% compared with the same period last year. In terms of flows, the largest export consumer market is India; Exports to Russia slowed to second place.
In addition, since the outbreak of the financial crisis, great changes have taken place in the global market and trade environment. Trade protectionism is on the rise in all countries, and trade frictions against the products of Chinese enterprises have increased significantly.