The Amount Of Plastic Can Shrink
- Dec 06, 2018 -

News: since late June, in the cost rise and demand recovery, plastic futures out of a wave of strong rebound market, technology has been close to the down channel along the price reversal signs. As plastic futures face the main month change, the 1809 contract and 1901 contract are analyzed together below.

In terms of volume, as of July 20, the volume of plastic futures trading was 199012 lots, 146,356 lots less than when the rebound began on June 22, down 42.38%. At the same time, positions were 50,6038, down 11,9724, or 19.13 percent, from June 22. From the data, the rise in the price of plastic is accompanied by a decline in the volume of positions, which shows that the bulls are taking profits, the price of continued uncertainty. In addition, the turnover rate was 39.33 percent, down 15.86 percentage points from June 22, indicating a significant decline in trading activity.

Specific to the position holding of main force seat, on July 20, plastic futures long position holding quantity of 20 seats is 156996 hands, short position holding quantity of 20 seats is 175912 hands, net much holding quantity is -18916 hands. And on June 22, the long top 20 seats holding capacity is 187,362 hands, short top 20 seats holding capacity is 209,290 hands, net holding capacity is -21928 hands. Bear power has weakened, but not significantly.

In terms of warehouse receipt, the quantity of warehouse receipt in plastic futures is 284 hands, which is 0.06% of the holding quantity. Spot selling pressure on futures prices can be basically ignored.

Capital, as a result of the volume of transactions has shrunk significantly, plastic futures trading volume has also declined significantly. As of July 20, the turnover was 9.267 billion yuan, down 6.184 billion yuan or 40.02% from June 22. However, due to the rise in prices, the stock of plastic futures margin showed an upward trend, with the capital stock at 11.934 billion yuan, 2.867 billion yuan higher than June 22, an increase of 31.62%.

Overall, although plastic prices have been rising well recently, due to the decline in trading volume and position holding, the amount of increase is insufficient and the sustainability is in doubt. In addition, the price is close to the pressure level, the probability of a recent correction is larger.